Trump Is Alienating Latino and Black Men

President Donald Trump owed his victory in 2024, in large part, to a big jump in support from Latino male voters and, to a lesser extent, Black men. But Trump has made several unforced errors that are guaranteed to drive away minority voters, particularly Blacks and Latinos. Trump’s poll ratings with those groups have fallen sharply, and that is bad news for Republicans facing midterm elections in November.

Trump has messed up the economy—the number one issue for Black and Latino men--with his harebrained tariffs. Trump has secured the border, but ICE’s brutal tactics have angered Hispanics, and they have probably alienated Black male voters as well. Many Black men have suffered mistreatment at the hands of local police, so ICE’s rough handling of protestors may trigger bad memories.

Trump managed to score a two-fer over the last week. The President posted a video on his Truth Social account that portrayed Barack and Michelle Obama as apes. An uproar ensued, but he refused to apologize. Instead, he talked about how much support he had picked up among Black men in 2024 and said, “I’m the least racist President you have ever had”. That may have come as a surprise to Barack Obama, among others.

Then, Trump criticized Bad Bunny’s spectacular half-time show at the Super Bowl, which was a joyful celebration of Latino culture. The President described the performance as “absolutely terrible” and “one of the worst ever”.

Trump attacked Bad Bunny for singing only in Spanish: “Nobody understands a word this guy is saying”. He called the show a “slap in the face to our country”, presumably because the songs and dancing were all Latin-themed.

Trump was also angry, of course, because Bad Bunny has clearly indicated his opposition to the President. And let’s face it, Bad Bunny is a much better dancer.

Trump’s nasty comments undoubtedly offended many Latinos…and perhaps millions of other Americans who are Bad Bunny fans.

Living La Vida Latina--Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl/photo: Getty Images

Latino Men: Swing Factor in 2024

Trump won the popular vote in 2024 largely because of Democrats’ blunders: Joe Biden’s advanced age and mental decline, his disastrous failure to control the border, and Kamala Harris’ flaws as a candidate. However, Trump also convinced voters that Biden’s policies were the main reason for inflation. That was false, but the claim resonated with voters, particularly with Hispanic and Black men.

Latino men were a huge swing factor in 2024 and a major reason for Trump’s victory. In 2020 Joe Biden carried the Hispanic male vote by 23 points, beating Trump by 59% to 36%. But in 2024, Trump’s support from Hispanic male voters shot up 12 points to 48%, according to Pew Research.

This was a dramatic change, especially since Hispanics are the largest minority group in the US. One in every five American citizens is Latino.

The shift was particularly pronounced among men younger than 40.

For the first time, Trump won the Rio Grande Valley in Texas and Miami-Dade County in Florida. Both areas have large Hispanic populations, although their national origins are different. The Texans are mostly Mexican American, and they previously tended to vote Democratic. The chaos at the border disillusioned many of them. The Floridians are primarily Cuban or Venezuelan, who have leaned Republican for years.

Most Black Men Still Voted for Harris

Trump also picked up votes from Black men, especially younger ones, but the shift was less pronounced. Although Trump’s support rose about 9 points to 21% among Black men, almost 80% still voted for Kamala Harris.

The impact on the election was also less significant because Black voters represent 12% of Americans, compared to 20% for Latinos. Still, Trump’s gains helped to narrow the gap in battleground states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, which the Democrats won in 2020 but lost in 2024.

Little Change Among Latinas, Black Women

Trump also increased his support among Latina and Black women voters, but the change was less important. Both groups voted overwhelmingly for Harris. Trump picked up 7 points with Latina women, but only 37% voted for him. Similarly, although Trump’s support from Black women rose 5 points, only 10% voted for him. These shifts did not move the needle in 2024.

Trump’s macho style and bravado may have appealed more to men than women in these groups. Women may also have been more skeptical about his promises to fix the economy and “bring prices down”.

A Reversal of Fortune for Trump?

In 2025 most Latinos soured on Trump, for the same reasons that his ratings fell among most Americans. The economy has slowed down on his watch, and inflation has remained stuck at about 3%. Consumers know that they are paying for the tariffs, in the form of higher prices.

ICE’s violent, lawless behavior has stunned voters. About 63% of all Americans thought that Trump had “gone too far” on immigration, according to Pew Research…and that was before ICE agents killed Renée Good and Alex Pretti. Latinos have been particularly outraged by the stories and videos of Hispanic immigrants being swept off to detention camps and treated harshly.

Now, 70% of Latino voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as President, according to Pew Research’s Majorities of Latinos Disapprove of Trump and His Policies on Economy, Immigration.

They are disappointed on several fronts:

· 65% disapprove of his approach to immigration

· 61% say Trump has made economic conditions worse

· 68% said that their situation had worsened in 2025

· 55% had “serious concerns” about their place in the US with Trump as president, up from 48% in 2019

However, Pew emphasized that 81% of Latinos who voted for Trump still support him. Hispanics are just as polarized as other Americans.

New Jersey: Latinos Drive Sherrill Victory

Two recent elections indicate that red lights are flashing for Republicans.

In November 2025, Representative Mikie Sherrill won the race for governor of New Jersey because she garnered 68% of the Latino vote. Sherrill won the votes of a significant number of Latinos who supported Trump in 2024; that provided her margin of victory.

Sherrill ran an excellent campaign, and she built a broad coalition, beating her opponent by 14 points. Sherrill also won the support of 94% of Black voters and 82% of Asian voters. However, she won only 47% of the white vote, in a blue state, which indicates the challenges Democrats face.

In any case, we should be wary of drawing too many inferences from Sherrill’s strong performance about the Democrats’ prospects in the midterms.

Texas: Warning Signs for GOP

And yet…in January, a Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, scored a stunning upset in a Texas state senate election. Rehmet flipped a traditionally “safe” Republican seat in Senate District 9, which encompasses Fort Worth and some adjacent communities. Like Sherrill, Rehmet owed his victory to a huge shift in support from Latinos, who comprise 20% of the voters in the district.

A local paper described his opponent, Leigh Wambsganss, as a “MAGA star”, and Rehmet faced an uphill battle. But with strong support from Latino voters, Rehmet won the election by 14 points. Rehmet captured about 79% of the Hispanic vote--a 26-point improvement over Kamala Harris’ 53%.

That was a big move. The previous state senator, Republican Kelly Hancock, had won the district by 20 points in 2022, as did Donald Trump in 2024. So Rehmet’s win was a shock to the local Republican leadership.

Rehmet’s victory may be short-lived. This was a special election to fill the seat, because Hancock resigned to become Acting Controller of Texas. Rehmet and Wambsganss will square off again in November. But a Democratic victory in a deeply red district shows the potential fallout for Republicans if they lose the support of Latino voters.

For a deeper dive into the dynamics driving Hispanic voters in general and the recent Texas election specifically, listen to the latest episode of Chuck LaRocha and Mike Madrid’s Latino Vote Podcast on Substack.

A Winning Formula for Democrats?

Rehmet is a very different politician from Sherrill. He is a blue-collar worker, an aircraft mechanic at Lockheed Martin. Sherrill is a lawyer and a former Federal prosecutor. However, these two candidates also shared some important similarities as they conducted their campaigns.

Both are veterans, although they did not engage in combat. They are political moderates. Both campaigned on kitchen-table issues—it’s the economy! They addressed the issues that most voters—Black, brown, white—really care about.

They did not get bogged down in the cultural wars that often distract Democratic candidates. Each has leadership skills. Sherril served as a Navy officer for 10 years, often in high-level positions. Rehmet has held senior positions in union organizations.

Sherrill is very good on the stump and comes across as down to earth, with the occasional salty comment worthy of a Navy veteran. (Rehmet may be a good speaker, too, but I can’t vouch for that.)

Each election is unique, of course, but these two decisive victories may hold some useful lessons for Democrats.

Let’s hope they pay attention. If the Democrats can appeal to Latinos and regain their support, it could be adios for the Republicans’ majority in the House. That would be very bad news for El Presidente. He would face a Congress that would actually do its job…and rein him in.

The Wall Street Democrat