Four myths about the US economy could cost Joe Biden the election. Here’s the truth: Covid-related supply disruptions and the war in Ukraine, not Biden’s policies, caused inflation. Inflation is no longer sky-high, running about 3.5%. The economy is performing very well, with good growth and low unemployment. Donald Trump was not a “genius” at managing the economy; it grew despite his disastrous policies, not because of them. Trump’s tax cuts and trade wars were expensive, colossal failures. Meanwhile, Biden’s programs are helping to generate strong job growth.

For months, Speaker Mike Johnson and other MAGA House Republicans have blocked President Biden’s request for more aid to Ukraine. Why don’t they want to defend another democracy against Putin’s unprovoked invasion? The sad truth: like Donald Trump, they no longer hold democratic values. Most House Republicans are election deniers, unwilling to accept the results of the popular vote or the transfer of power to the opposing party. They admire strongmen like Putin and seem open to installing one-party rule in the US. After all, if the MAGA Republicans won’t practice democracy at home, why should they defend it abroad?

US deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine have fallen by two-thirds since last summer. So Ukraine’s prospects will be grim if Congress does not authorize new aid soon. By spring the Russians will break through in some places, and by the summer, Ukraine’s army will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point Ukraine’s front will collapse, and the Russians will take big chunks of the country. After subduing Ukraine, Putin will eventually move against the Baltic States and Poland.

Far-right politicians like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor-Greene claim that American aid to Ukraine creates a huge strain on the Federal budget, which prevents the US from addressing problems on the southern border. They are simply wrong. US aid to Ukraine has been less than 1% of the total Federal budget and only 4% of defense spending. Still, America provides the lion’s share of military equipment. If Congress doesn’t approve more US aid—soon--Ukraine’s prospects will be grim.

Georgia’s political make-up has changed dramatically since 2000, as large numbers of African Americans and other minorities migrated to the state. Half of all new voters are Black, and Georgia has turned from deep red into a battleground state. The 2020 election was a political earthquake; Georgians voted for Joe Biden and elected two Democrats as Senators. But the election triggered a sharp backlash. The state legislature rushed through a law designed to make voting harder for minority citizens and city dwellers, who are mostly Democrats.

Turkish President Erdogan has shown other would-be autocrats how to undermine a democracy. Erdogan conducted a massive purge of government employees, attacking them as the “deep state”, to eliminate civil servants who opposed his policies. As secular Turks turned against Erdogan, because of his authoritarian behavior and corruption, he has increasingly courted the religious right to hang onto power. Although Turkey is an important member of NATO, Erdogan has not been a reliable ally. And Donald Trump has declared himself “a big fan” of Erdogan.

Western observers used to consider Turkey an encouraging example that a nation could be Muslim and democratic. But President Erdogan has turned a secular democracy into an autocratic regime dominated by the religious right. He has muzzled the independent press and squashed dissent, rigging elections in his favor. Erdogan purged his “enemies” in government, waging war against the “deep state”. He caters to religious conservatives, his “base”, to stay in power. Erdogan has provided a playbook for other would-be strongmen. Donald Trump and his advisors have paid close attention.

On a recent trip we were struck by the profound differences between Greece and Turkey. Greece is a blend of European and Middle Eastern cultures. Turkey is a Middle Eastern country that happens to share a border with Europe. The frontier between the two nations has marked the fault line between the Christian and Muslim worlds for centuries; religion plays a key role in both countries’ cultures. Under President Erdogan, Turkey has become more overtly religious and conservative. Now, half of the women in Istanbul wear head scarves.

President Joe Biden seems hellbent on running for re-election, despite abysmal poll numbers. But he should step aside and let younger Democratic leaders compete for the nomination. Several governors, such as Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear and others could be strong candidates. Despite his strong record as President, Biden faces two huge obstacles: voters think he is too old and has mismanaged the economy (because of high inflation). At this point, changing voters’ perceptions on these issues could be Mission Impossible for Biden.

The latest indictment of Donald Trump is the Big One for the former president, and it lays out a damning case against him. The prosecutors show in detail how Trump conspired to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Trump faces a high risk of being convicted and imprisoned if he is tried. The prosecutors anticipated that Trump would defend his actions as “free speech,” and they demonstrate that he crossed the line into criminal behavior. However, this case might not be brought to trial before the 2024 presidential contest is decided, and Trump has a good change of winning re-election. Still, this indictment might be the last straw for the 25% of Republicans who do not worship Trump, so some of them might consider voting for Joe Biden.

In Harper v. Moore the Supreme Court completely rejected the independent state legislature theory, which could have led to chaos in the 2024 Presidential election. Under this crackpot notion, state legislatures would have unfettered power to set the rules for voting and their actions would not be subject to oversight by state courts. Far-right Republicans would probably have used this theory to lobby state lawmakers to ignore the popular vote and create alternative slates of Presidential electors in 2024.

In two major decisions, the U.S. Supreme Court supported voting rights for black Americans and rejected a radical legal theory that could have wreaked havoc with the 2024 Presidential election. The first decision, Allen v. Milligan, came as a pleasant surprise, given this Court’s previous hostility to voting rights. The second ruling, Harper v. Moore, was a relief; American democracy dodged a bullet. Under the so-called “independent state legislature theory” proposed in that case, state lawmakers would have had absolute authority to dictate how elections are conducted, without any oversight or review by state courts.

Republicans’ threat to force the U.S. government to default on its debt, so they can get massive spending cuts, is extortion. Democrats don’t use such scorched-earth tactics. The Republicans are playing with fire. A default of just a few weeks could push unemployment to 8% from 3.4% and cost eight million jobs. The Republicans are not really interested in reducing the deficit. If they were serious about doing that, they would repeal Donald Trump’s useless tax cuts. They would not try to eliminate badly needed funding for the IRS.

Latinos overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party. Sixty percent say the Democrats represent them well, compared to 34% for Republicans. Republicans have a serious image problem with Hispanics, with two-thirds saying the Republican Party does not really care about them. Democrats’ approach to Immigration attracts Latinos, of course, but most Hispanics also share Democratic positions on abortion and gun control. However, Cubans are a distinct group; about 60% lean Republican.

Bank runs are terrifying because they can spread like wildfire, even to sound institutions. As Silicon Valley Bank teetered, the contagion spread to First Republic Bank, a stronger, more diversified company. A consortium of mega-banks had to shore up First Republic with $30 billion of funding. To avoid more bank runs, Congress should raise the deposit insurance limit to $1 million; forget the misleading talk about “bailing out rich depositors.” Congress should reimpose strict rules on regional banks with assets of $100 billion or more. The Federal Reserve should require them to undergo tough annual stress tests.

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed mostly because its management rolled the dice and did not hedge its bond portfolio. When the bank took big losses on the bonds, scaring investors, that triggered a bank run. But the bank’s failure is also a wake-up call for the industry. Bank runs can happen at warp speed now because of social media. It was a mistake to loosen the rules for regional banks in 2018. Congress should re-impose stricter standards on banks with $100 billion or more of assets. SVB’s bank examiners dropped the ball, and the Fed must tighten up its supervision of regional banks.

Did you know that one in five Americans is Latino? And that one in six eligible voters in Hispanic? Latinos, now the second-largest ethnic group in the U.S., are becoming a major force in national politics and a dominant factor in several key states.

Hispanics represent 20% of more of eligible voters in six states, including Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. As Latinos have moved to regions throughout the country, they have also become an important factor in “battleground” states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Vladimir Putin’s threats of deploying nuclear weapons have intimidated the US and NATO. The West has limited Ukraine’s ability to strike at military bases in Russia. This is a recipe for defeat in Ukraine, especially since Western sanctions have not hurt Russia’s ability to sell oil and gas or get weapons. The US and NATO should equip Ukraine with tanks and jet fighters, and quickly.

Critics argue that Ukraine must negotiate with Putin to avoid further bloodshed. But that is wishful thinking. Appeasement won’t work.

Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other far-right Republicans have called for the US to cut off all aid to Ukraine and force its government to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. They claim that US cannot afford to help Ukraine and that America’s national security is not at stake. But the US’ assistance to Ukraine is less than 1% of the Federal budget. And Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union and dominate all of Eastern Europe. Conquering Ukraine would be only the first step in his campaign to restore Russian rule over the Baltic States, Poland and other democracies. Instead of reducing its aid, the US should equip Ukraine with tanks and jet fighters as soon as possible.

Kevin McCarthy has let radical Republicans seize control of the House of Representatives. This has set the stage for a dangerous standoff on raising the US debt ceiling. Ultra-MAGA Republicans have vowed not to raise the debt ceiling, in order to force the Biden administration to slash Social Security and Medicare payments. If they carry out their threat, the government could default on its debt this summer. That would wreak havoc on the U.S. economy.

The deficit is too high, but the best way to reduce it is through reasonable increases in tax revenues. How? By rolling back the Trump tax cuts and giving the IRS the funds it needs to conduct its operations properly and catch tax cheats.